{"data": [{"acronym": "ISRI-TG", "archived": null, "badges": [], "contact_point": null, "created_at": "2026-06-09T14:04:50.114000+00:00", "deleted": null, "description": "**1. Contexte et Objectifs**\n\nLe Togo est r\u00e9guli\u00e8rement confront\u00e9 \u00e0 des inondations d\u00e9vastatrices, recens\u00e9es par [EM-DAT](https://www.emdat.be/) depuis 1966, qui ont caus\u00e9 au moins 82 d\u00e9c\u00e8s, bless\u00e9 171 personnes et affect\u00e9 plus de 500 000 individus, principalement dans les r\u00e9gions Savanes, Kara, Plateaux et Maritime. Ces \u00e9v\u00e9nements, souvent li\u00e9s aux bassins du Mono et de l\u2019Oti ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 des pluies torrentielles, impactent lourdement les populations rurales vuln\u00e9rables, les infrastructures p\u00e9riurbaines comme \u00e0 Lom\u00e9, et l\u2019\u00e9conomie nationale avec des dommages directs (ex. : 200 milliers US$ en 1966, ajust\u00e9s \u00e0 1,9 million) et des pertes indirectes massives comme 26 milliards FCFA (environ 40 millions US$) en productivit\u00e9 agricole en 2020 ou 2,6 milliards FCFA en agriculture/\u00e9levage en 2022. La gestion efficace de ce risque n\u00e9cessite une compr\u00e9hension fine des facteurs de susceptibilit\u00e9 (ex. : exposition aux bassins fluviaux) et de vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 (ex. : pauvret\u00e9 rurale \u00e0 65,1% dans les Savanes), appuy\u00e9e par une mod\u00e9lisation probabiliste.\n\nDans ce contexte, ce projet vise \u00e0 d\u00e9velopper un mod\u00e8le national de cartographie de l\u2019al\u00e9a et du risque d\u2019inondation afin de soutenir :\n\n- la planification urbaine,\n- la pr\u00e9vention et la gestion des catastrophes,\n- l\u2019orientation des investissements publics,\n- l\u2019identification des zones prioritaires d\u2019intervention.\n\nLe mod\u00e8le permet notamment de :\n\n1. Identifier les zones naturellement pr\u00e9dispos\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019accumulation d\u2019eau et aux inondations ;\n2. \u00c9valuer le risque r\u00e9el en int\u00e9grant l\u2019exposition humaine, les infrastructures et la vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 socio-\u00e9conomique ;\n3. Produire des cartes d\u00e9cisionnelles exploitables par les autorit\u00e9s publiques et les acteurs humanitaires.\n\n\n**2. M\u00e9thodologie**\n\nLa m\u00e9thodologie repose sur la construction de deux indices compl\u00e9mentaires :\n\n- **FSI (Flood Susceptibility Index)** : mesure de la susceptibilit\u00e9 physique du territoire aux inondations ;\n- **FRI (Flood Risk Index)** : mesure du risque r\u00e9el combinant al\u00e9a, exposition et vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9.\n\nL\u2019ensemble des traitements est r\u00e9alis\u00e9 dans un environnement SIG et d\u2019analyse spatiale bas\u00e9 sur Python.\n\n\n**2.1 Flood Susceptibility Index (FSI)**\n\nLe **Flood Susceptibility Index (FSI)** \u00e9value la pr\u00e9disposition intrins\u00e8que du territoire \u00e0 l\u2019inondation \u00e0 partir des caract\u00e9ristiques physiques et environnementales.\n\nLe mod\u00e8le repose sur la m\u00e9thode probabiliste du **Frequency Ratio (FR)** calibr\u00e9e \u00e0 partir d\u2019un inventaire historique des inondations observ\u00e9es entre 2016 et 2023.\n\n**Variables environnementales utilis\u00e9es**\n\n**Topographie**\nVariables d\u00e9riv\u00e9es du Mod\u00e8le Num\u00e9rique de Terrain :\n- Altitude\n- Pente\n- Orientation des versants\n- Topographic Position Index (TPI)\n- Terrain Ruggedness Index (TRI)\n- Topographic Wetness Index (TWI)\n\n**Hydrologie**\n- Distance aux rivi\u00e8res et cours d\u2019eau\n- Distance aux lacs et lagunes\n\n**Occupation du sol**\n- Land Use / Land Cover (LULC 2023)\n\n**Sols et g\u00e9ologie**\n- Types de sols\n- Nature g\u00e9ologique du socle\n\n**Validation du mod\u00e8le**\nLes performances du mod\u00e8le FSI ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9valu\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019aide d\u2019une courbe ROC.\n- **AUC obtenue : 92 %**\nCette performance indique une tr\u00e8s bonne capacit\u00e9 du mod\u00e8le \u00e0 discriminer les zones inondables des zones non inondables.\n\n**2.2 Flood Risk Index (FRI)**\n\nLe **Flood Risk Index (FRI)** combine l\u2019al\u00e9a physique et les dimensions humaines du risque selon le cadre conceptuel :\n\nFRI = Hazard * Exposure * Vulnerability\n\no\u00f9 :\n\n- **Hazard** correspond au FSI ;\n- **Exposure** repr\u00e9sente l\u2019exposition des populations et des infrastructures ;\n- **Vulnerability** traduit la capacit\u00e9 de r\u00e9silience socio-\u00e9conomique.\n\nLe FRI est calcul\u00e9 \u00e0 partir d\u2019une moyenne g\u00e9om\u00e9trique normalis\u00e9e des diff\u00e9rents indicateurs.\n\n**A. Exposition**\n\nLes variables d\u2019exposition incluent :\n\n- Densit\u00e9 de population ;\n- Zones urbaines ;\n- Densit\u00e9 de b\u00e2timents ;\n- Terres agricoles et zones de production alimentaire.\n\n**B. Vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9**\n\nLes variables de vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 incluent :\n\n- Relative Wealth Index (RWI) utilis\u00e9 comme indicateur de r\u00e9silience \u00e9conomique ;\n- Proximit\u00e9 des bassins de r\u00e9tention et infrastructures de protection hydraulique.\n\n\n**3. 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